PDF NEW [The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds]

  • Paperback
  • 368
  • The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds
  • Michael Lewis
  • English
  • 18 July 2020
  • 9780393354775

Michael Lewis Ê 1 READ

READ Û The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds Rnment regulation and made much of Michael Lewis’s own work possible In The Undoing Project Lewis shows how their Nobel Prize–winning theory of the mind altered our perception of reality. Amos Tversky and David Kahneman are psychologists who met in Israel in the 1960 s Though very different in personality they became very close friends and went on to collaborate in producing a number of papers concerning what came to be known as behavioural economics or in layman s terms the psychology of judgement and decision making In essence they argued that departures in human rational thought can be predicted and its impacts calculated To demonstrate this they concocted numerous scenarios and asked students and others to choose between various courses of action In so doing they demonstrated that some favoured choices were just not logical They went on to share their thoughts on why these illogical choices were dominant and how such responses could be anticipated The theories they propounded have been largely accepted and have had significant positive impacts in many fields economics science law and public policy to name just a few This book explains their theories to some degree but it s main focus is on them as individuals their lives personalities and backgrounds and on how they worked together They effectively set themselves up in a room away from others and verbalised and their thoughts and built on and challenged the ideas that surfaced In so doing they effectively became one voice it was very much a working marriage Like any marriage it eventually suffered ups and downs and the human side of this account is both fascinating and at times sad I can t claim that I became an expert in behavioural economics as a result of this book but a basic understanding of the rudiments was enough to give me insight into the significance of their work Ok it s a bit dry in places but I did enjoy dipping my toe into the water of an area in which I had no previous knowledge uirkyalone A Manifesto for Uncompromising Romantics known as behavioural economics or in layman s terms the psychology of judgement and decision making In essence they argued that departures in human rational thought can be predicted and its impacts calculated To demonstrate this they concocted numerous scenarios and asked students and others to choose between various courses of action In so doing they demonstrated that some favoured choices were just not logical They went on to share their thoughts on why these illogical choices were dominant and how such responses could be anticipated The theories they propounded have been largely accepted and have had significant positive impacts in many fields economics science law and public policy to name just a few This book explains their theories to some degree but it s main focus is on them as individuals their lives personalities and backgrounds and on how they worked together They effectively set themselves up in a room away from others and verbalised and their thoughts and built on and challenged the ideas that surfaced In so doing they effectively became one voice it was very much a working marriage Like any marriage it eventually suffered ups and downs and the human side of this account is both fascinating and at times sad I can t claim that I became an expert in behavioural economics as a result of this book but a basic understanding of the rudiments was enough to give me insight into the significance of their work Ok it s a bit dry in places but I did enjoy dipping my toe into the water of an area in which I had no previous Tennessee Reunion Williamston Wildlife Rescue #3 knowledge

REVIEW The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our MindsThe Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds

READ Û The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds Rtnerships in the history of science Kahneman and Tversky’s extraordinary friendship incited a revolution in Big Data studies advanced evidence based medicine led to a new approach to gove. I will be bold and confidently tell you what this book is all aboutHumans making decisions are inherently handicapped by systematic biases that make them think they are being logical but often or possibly usually are not And Mankind longs for certainty but we live in an inherently uncertain word Man is a deterministic device thrown into a probabilistic Universe Kindle Locations 2619 2620There no need to read any or my reviewBUT I do ramble on so here goesThe two psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman starting in the 1960 s discovered when people make decisions in times of uncertainty they are influenced by biases in place of statistical thinking and sometimes flying in the face of statistics make decisions uite confidently Sometimes with deadly resultsThere are tons of cool psychology terms like heuristic availability heuristic representativeness heuristic I am not going to define heuristic for anybody until I actually figure it out and that may be my first criticism Lewis mentions something about rules of thumb and somehow I m supposed to understand what heuristic means I think I picked it up from context but I don t want to embarrass myself by mis defining itOK refocus SO we humans live in an uncertain world but in general we bend our thinking and our memory so we are certain of things than we ought to be And Daniel Kahneman was uniuely ualified to investigate this kind of thing The closest he came to certainty was in his approach to making decisions He never simply went with his first thought He suggested a new definition of the nerd a person who knows his own mind well enough to mistrust it Kindle Locations 245 247And they go on to identify and the multitude of ways people reassure themselves they are right The easily people can call some scenario to mind the available it is to them the probable they find it to be Kindle Locations 2506 2507 Conseuently Amos and Danny wrote the use of the availability heuristic leads to systematic biases Human judgment was distorted by the memorable Kindle Locations 2531 2533As it relates to the last US presidential election the key insight is that people simply don t make decision because of factual analysis Apparently the director general didn t want to rely on the best estimates He preferred his own internal probability calculator his gut That was the moment I gave up on decision analysis said Danny No one ever made a decision because of a number They need a story Kindle Locations 3359 3361And of course one big argument is between this thinking and economist and their related political parties who claim people will act logically in their own self interests Thereby letting the invisible hand of capitalism solve all our problems von Neumann and Morgenstern transitivity axiom If he preferred A to B and B to C then he should prefer A to C Anyone who preferred A to B and B to C but then turned around and preferred C to A violated expected utility theory Kindle Locations 3429 3432 Like the other rules of rationality the independence axiom seemed reasonable and not obviously contradicted by the way human beings generally behaved Kindle Locations 3437 3438Too bad it is just a crock of well somethingPeople don t make decisions because of the utility of how it will improve their life The point is people make decisions because of the story line they construct in their head The story generated either from memory or from cultural outside influences Which definitely explains the whole business of advertising Too bad we are running the world because of the stories But these stories people told themselves were biased by the availability of the material used to construct them Images of the future are shaped by experience of the past they wrote turning on its head Santayana s famous lines about the importance of history Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it What people remember about the past they suggested is likely to warp their judgment of the future We often decide that an outcome is extremely unlikely or impossible because we are unable to imagine any chain of events that could cause it to occur The defect often is in our imagination Kindle Locations 2569 2575 INTERMISSIONI have to point out that any smart person reading this or the book itself will think HEY that is not me I am logical and make logical decisionsAnd it does get fuzzy because a lot of their evidence is from psychological test with a bunch of hypothetical situations So sure maybe in real life we would straighten up and not let our natural biases rule us And I bet a lot of people believe that But seeing some of the real life choices I ve seen or heard aboutI m gonna stick with Amos and Danny There is a bunch and some pretty shocking examples of how susceptible experts are to all these same biasesOn a final note most of what I said above is from the first of the book And the last part is about The Undoing Project that is not covered as well to the point I wonder why Lewis chose that title Unless he is saying A D are undoing the thinking of the conventional world Or probably it was some wordplay and only refers the undoing of their friendship maybeConclusion 1 Great points on how screwed we are as a civilization and how making good decision is an uphill battleConclusion 2 Even though they were both brilliant psychologist and I m just a poor schlub reading about them I think they are so into discounting traditional psychology they miss a big part of being human I don t think either of them give much credence that we are anything than decisions making machines Not much for the unconscious or subconscious or any non measurable part to living So my irrational notion there is something to life than the measurable keeps me from being enthusiastic about this book and I wish Lewis had addressed that How Money Became Dangerous kind of thing The closest he came to certainty was in his approach to making decisions He never simply went with his first thought He suggested a new definition of the nerd a person who Windburn knows his own mind well enough to mistrust it Kindle Locations 245 247And they go on to identify and the multitude of ways people reassure themselves they are right The easily people can call some scenario to mind the available it is to them the probable they find it to be Kindle Locations 2506 2507 Conseuently Amos and Danny wrote the use of the availability heuristic leads to systematic biases Human judgment was distorted by the memorable Kindle Locations 2531 2533As it relates to the last US presidential election the Light Traveling key insight is that people simply don t make decision because of factual analysis Apparently the director general didn t want to rely on the best estimates He preferred his own internal probability calculator his gut That was the moment I gave up on decision analysis said Danny No one ever made a decision because of a number They need a story Kindle Locations 3359 3361And of course one big argument is between this thinking and economist and their related political parties who claim people will act logically in their own self interests Thereby letting the invisible hand of capitalism solve all our problems von Neumann and Morgenstern transitivity axiom If he preferred A to B and B to C then he should prefer A to C Anyone who preferred A to B and B to C but then turned around and preferred C to A violated expected utility theory Kindle Locations 3429 3432 Like the other rules of rationality the independence axiom seemed reasonable and not obviously contradicted by the way human beings generally behaved Kindle Locations 3437 3438Too bad it is just a crock of well somethingPeople don t make decisions because of the utility of how it will improve their life The point is people make decisions because of the story line they construct in their head The story generated either from memory or from cultural outside influences Which definitely explains the whole business of advertising Too bad we are running the world because of the stories But these stories people told themselves were biased by the availability of the material used to construct them Images of the future are shaped by experience of the past they wrote turning on its head Santayana s famous lines about the importance of history Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it What people remember about the past they suggested is likely to warp their judgment of the future We often decide that an outcome is extremely unlikely or impossible because we are unable to imagine any chain of events that could cause it to occur The defect often is in our imagination Kindle Locations 2569 2575 INTERMISSIONI have to point out that any smart person reading this or the book itself will think HEY that is not me I am logical and make logical decisionsAnd it does get fuzzy because a lot of their evidence is from psychological test with a bunch of hypothetical situations So sure maybe in real life we would straighten up and not let our natural biases rule us And I bet a lot of people believe that But seeing some of the real life choices I ve seen or heard aboutI m gonna stick with Amos and Danny There is a bunch and some pretty shocking examples of how susceptible experts are to all these same biasesOn a final note most of what I said above is from the first of the book And the last part is about The Undoing Project that is not covered as well to the point I wonder why Lewis chose that title Unless he is saying A D are undoing the thinking of the conventional world Or probably it was some wordplay and only refers the undoing of their friendship maybeConclusion 1 Great points on how screwed we are as a civilization and how making good decision is an uphill battleConclusion 2 Even though they were both brilliant psychologist and I m just a poor schlub reading about them I think they are so into discounting traditional psychology they miss a big part of being human I don t think either of them give much credence that we are anything than decisions making machines Not much for the unconscious or subconscious or any non measurable part to living So my irrational notion there is something to life than the measurable Knights vs Dinosaurs keeps me from being enthusiastic about this book and I wish Lewis had addressed that

READ Ï VIVETUMUSICA.CO Ê Michael Lewis

READ Û The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds Forty years ago Israeli psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky wrote a series of breathtakingly original papers that invented the field of behavioral economics One of the greatest pa. This nonfiction is unlike others Michael Lewis has offered us In this he tries the trick of explaining confusion by demonstrating confusion but near the end of this work we appreciate again Lewis distinctive clarity and well developed sense of irony as he addresses a very conseuential collaboration in the history of ideas Lewis did something else he d not done before as well By the end of this book I was bawling aloud in total sync with what Lewis was trying to convey why humans do what we doDaniel Kahneman is a psychologist who won the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics What is remarkable about that statement is also what is remarkable about Lewis attempt to explain it Lewis made us feel the chaos and the unlikelihood of such a success in this case of ever finding that one person who complements another so perfectly that the two literally spur one another to greater accomplishment From a vast array of possible choices opportunities and directions come two psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky who together add up to than the sum of their partsOne thing became clear about the groundbreaking work done by Kahneman and Tversky despite the curiosity drive and iconoclastic talent each possessed their moments of greatest crossover relevance came as a result of the involvement of the other This could push the discussion into an examination of the importance of pairs in creativity but Lewis resists that thread to follow what he calls a love story to the end to the breakup of the two men Once the closest of friends and collaborators the reason for their breakup is at least as instructive as anything else Lewis could have chosen to focus on and it makes a helluva story full of poignancy Kahneman was an idea man throwing up new psychological insights constantly beginning with his early work recruiting and training Israeli soldiers for the front line Tversky was a widely admired mathematical psychologist iconoclast and skeptic who challenged accepted thinking and in so doing provided new ways to look at old problems Just by asking uestions he could lead others to find innovative solutions Both Israelis were teaching at the University of Michigan in the 1960s but their paths didn t overlap until later back in Israel In one of the classes he taught at Hebrew University Kahneman challenged guest lecturer Tversky s discussion on how people make decisions in conditions of uncertainty In this instance Kahneman became the iconoclast the skeptic pulling the rug from underneath Tversky The challenge got under Tversky s skin but instead of falling prey to anger Tversky was galvanized Colleagues who saw him at this time recall his unusually intense period of uestioning After a period of time the men came together again and thus began one of the richest and most rewarding periods of intellectual collaboration in modern timesTogether both men were able to isolate some important pieces in the thinking seuences of humans who were presumed to maximize utility in rational logical decision trees It took many years to isolate what struck them as incomplete or incorrect in the accepted thinking of others but what they concluded revolutionized the thinking in several disciplines including economics and baseballLewis s earlier book Moneyball The Art of Winning an Unfair Game discussed how an algorithm assigning different weights to individual characteristics of baseball draft picks could by pass the errors human tend to make when looking over a list of potential players This is related in a distant way to the illogic discovered in the decision trees Kahneman and Tversky discussed and unfortunately Lewis decides to revisit the breakthrough in his own understanding at the beginning of this book Describing that tangential result of the men s essential discovery unnecessarily complicates and obfuscates Lewis central thrust in this book the relationship between two men who supercharge their achievements when they are together Once Lewis settles into the real subject of his book his writing becomes familiarly crystalline filled with science and emotion describing a singularly fascinating taleParticularly interesting is Lewis attention to how ideas develop Lewis tries in several instances to get to the moment of insight and then to the moments of greater insight which might lead finally to upturning accepted beliefs about how one thinks the world must work Happiness and regret both came under the microscopes of these men and it was hugely insightful for them to discover that regret was the impelling emotion People often made decisions to minimize regret rather than maximize happiness This led to the discovery that the value of positive goods decreased after a certain level of attainment while the value of negative bads never lost their bite Which could be another way of describing the apparently supreme need to minimize loss rather than maximize gain Which led to the discovery that people often gamble against what had been perceived as their own interestsThe two men were opposites of one another Kahneman a heavy smoker whose office was messy and disordered and Tversky who hated smoking with an office so well organized it looked empty For a period of almost twenty years during the years of their greatest output they could often be found together talking or writing one another if apart They published hugely influential papers and became the toast of several continents The closeness of the two men appeared to have no discrepancy until gradually over time Tversky became better known and popular in scientific and academic circles The euilibrium of the relationship was thus unbalanced and a period of estrangement led the men in different directions The entire story in Lewis hands is wonderfully moving If you can thrash your way through the thicket of ideas at the entrance to the main repository of ideas in this book prepare yourselves to be utterly delighted Buried Mountain Secrets known and popular in scientific and academic circles The euilibrium of the relationship was thus unbalanced and a period of estrangement led the men in different directions The entire story in Lewis hands is wonderfully moving If you can thrash your way through the thicket of ideas at the entrance to the main repository of ideas in this book prepare yourselves to be utterly delighted